For the location of the covid 19 pandemic in sweden
The swedish emergency medical sebastian rushworth emphasizes the anecdotic character of his blog articles from the beginning of august to the pandemic in sweden, which were published in german in telepolis (how bad is covid really?To). His representation is still well with the doctrine of the swedish health department (folkhalsomyndignheten) for the evidence of covid-19 ocean. As with rushworth, the central question is the immunitat of infected.
In sweden, like everywhere, you are interested in the so-called "second wave". Conditioned for the situation, the department of health analysis and data development (folkhalsoeanalys och datautveckling), whose director is different tegnell as "architect of the swedish way" has become known.
On the 1. July presented the analysis unit (enhet for analysis) of tegnell’s department of model calculations "estimation of the number of infected persons during the covid-19 outbreak" before. If the contacts increase in the population, sometimes are quite imposing second waves. However, in the discussion part, it is called: "in the short break, information was presented, according to which mild trap never develop anti-body against sars cov-2, but only t-cell-mediated immunitat. If there is also the fact that infected persons with very mild symptoms have short pcr test windows, which are completely missing, then the amed test window of ten days were a suppowered amption and we were the number of infected signs."
To the "brickly presented information" karolinska study treated by rushworth. From this study, the karolinska institute himself reported on 2. July on his websites under the transfer "covid-19 immunite is probably showing gross as a test".
As part of the "government plan for a possible renewed outbreak of covid-19" published the health department on the 21. July three scenarios of the analysis unit for the spread of covid-19 in the individual state districts (lan) until september 2021. Scenario 0 corresponds to the decreasing infections to be observed by mid-july in the population; scenario 1 simulates one rapidly increasing infection wave rapidly increasing in autumn 2020; and scenario 2 shows a long permanent equal spread of infections.
In the models, the pcr test window has remained of ten days, but now worked on the amption that the overall period is immune, who once became infected. That’s true with the exports to the immunitat of rushworth ubereinein. The curves are now significantly flatter. But again it is called: "we do not take into account the so-called t-cell immunitat." comparing the scenarios for districts in which there are statistically significant case numbers (z.B. Stockholm), with the data, then the real case numbers fall to mid-july tend to be stronger than in the scenarios.
The analysis unit has evidently difficulty to take the t-cell immunitat into its pcr test-based models. That you had to do that is the new realization that one won during the pandemic. T-cell tests are difficult and are rarely made clinically, writes rushworth. There are no parameters for t cells. It is methodically clean, do not make arbitrar amptions, but you get a too dramatic picture of the situation.
Also on 21. July "guidelines for assessing immunitat" appeared. There is: "although not everyone after infection developable quantities of antibodies in the blood, these persons probably have developed any form of immune response. This can, for example, a local production of antibodies in mucous membranes, a t-cell-mediated immune response without measurable activation of anti-body production, a cytokine response, etc. Be." in the immunitatal assessment t cells are now considered. The also mentioned mucous membrane orphans can be found, according to a swiss study of may, five times more often than bloodantic organ.
On the 29th. July was now called the third demographic study on the occurrence of covid-19 in sweden. With the evaluation, early september is expected. The execution of rushworth after the question of the t cells was expected to play a role. The envision can not be seen if that is the case. In the two demographic studies of the end of april and at the end of may, only pcr tests were made.
According to weekly management report of 21. August are light and heavy covid-19 diseases in the 32. Calendar week risen a little and in the 33. Equal. From rushworth’s executions arises that essentially only sufferers with pcr on covid-19 are tested. Accordingly, the number number has risen a little and then remained the same. The share of positively tested at the total number of tests is now at four percent. Rushworth writes, one should look at the statement of assessment instead of the infected number meaningfully look at the death trap: they have fallen further and lie nationwide in the area of the season of the year.
Press images from the beginning of august show sweden without a distance and masks as rushworth describes. The health department gave on 30. July the recommendation, continue to operate home office and on the 13th. August rules for chore.
It may be that the already "debriefer" heard. So matthias shrape and his co-authors in their third thesis paper denote the exit from a crisis situation ("the pandemic by sars-cov-2 / covid-19, monitor supply research, 8. July). In sweden, many people have been psychologically completed with the pandemic, and those with a residual virus approach is told that they can handle, and that this has its correctness.
The swedes are returned from vacation and the health department emphasizes the importance of general rules (spacing, hand and nies hygiene, who is sick, should stay at home). From a contagion to the disease pass three weeks, writes rushworth. The health department will observe whether the return shaft brings diseases and compare this with the scenarios and the immunitatory directive. The result of the demographic study will also wait for the health department. How it goes on, you will see.