“Success” in ireland: emigration lowers unemployment

Furthermore, 100 irish leave the green island daily, so the unemployment and the costs of social security are sinking, but the future of the country is heavily burdened

As expected, the public on the 15th. December the rough ireland success show presented. The country has folded the rescue screen and officially does not need emergency aid 2.0 like greece. The alleged success is expensive on all levels and you have to do with an irish marchen. Because the debts rise to ever new record levels, the budget deficit will again be 7.3% again in 2013. But it should sink because the government saves on social spending and daily 100 inhabitants "exported" will. Only therefore the unemployment rate has fallen to only 12.5% in november. Other crisis countries such as greece or spain have more than twice as high quotas. But because of emigration, dramatic social and economic consequences are expected in the future. Especially well-educated young people return their homeland the jerking, in the future a specialist defect is expected.

From the left new germany to the right handelsblatt came many to a similar result. Ireland is one "pattern shoulder", because the country is now on his own docks. Because on 15. December has left ireland as the first crisis country the rescue screen and should now be refinanced by the capital markets again.

But there are also deviating opinions. This means the new zuriche zeitung (nzz), ireland is rather "sample shoulder damn", and is therefore much closer to the realitate. The nzz quotes the well-known irish writer james joyce to describe the situation of many people in the country. In his masterpiece "ulysses" write joyce: "history is a nightmare from which i waist attempts." because many irish are looking forward to a nightmare from which they were rather woken up yesterday. To avoid this, it is always attracting more irish abroad because they do not see a future in their homeland.

Thus, a positive value that ireland can attract compared to other crisis channels, bought expensive over emigration, which is actively demanded by the irish government. Because this was achieved that the unemployment rates have fallen again in the last 18 months. In november, the quota now fell seasonally adjusted to 12.5%, the irish statisticians announced. It looks really good at the more than twice so high quotas in greece and spain. This also applies to the crisis country portugal, in which the unemployment rate has also fallen slightly in recent months, but with 15.7% unlike ireland is still significantly higher than average in the euro area of 12.1%. Ireland seems to have success, because a year ago, the quota on the green island with 14.1% was almost as high as in portugal.

But the dismantling of unemployment is an even higher number of emigrants. This turns out as a secret success. It is a sparkle as in jim button by michael end. Because mr. Tur tur only coarse – like the success in the evidence of unemployment in ireland -, if you look at it from a distance. If you look at the huge giants and the irish unemployment rate but from the close, then mr. Tur tur is as rough as any normal person. The number of unemployed goods in ireland even rose without a massive emigration instead of sinking. Because the data of the central statistics office (cso) show in irish cork, the number of unemployed seasonally adjusted from november 2012 and november 2013 decreased by 26.700.

Emigration than "lifestyle"

Apart from conventional tricks, with which unemployment figures are spared, the cso statisticians also show that ireland has been a negative immigration rate for five years now. Thus, in the last three years, 100 people more people emigrated than immigrated. So there were about 3.000 per month and more than 33.000 in the year. Without the emigrants ireland had about 6.000 unemployed more instead of just under 27.000 less.

If you put the emigrants in a historical context, then you have to go to the hunger years of 19. Join the century to find such results. In the coarse famine between 1841 and 1844 emigrated an average of 50.000 irish per year and went mainly to england, canada, australia and the usa. What is a dream for many, for the irish minister of finance michael noonan "self-picked lifestyle". He even claimed that emigration had nothing to do with the economic crisis, quoted him the british guardian. The british newspaper has long draws attention to the fact that irish migrate in droves in the direction of liverpool.

For the minister of finance, it is obviously no scandal that for the first time almost as many people as in the gross hungernot leave the country. If noonan speaks of a new lifestyle, he will probably take others from his family. It turns out that he obviously lost every ground liability when a well-deserving minister, who has three children living abroad, explains: "there are always young people pulling to ireland or pulling away from ireland, and some of them are emigrants in the usual sense. Others just want to leave the island for a while." that in ireland this is largely different, can be reconstructed in a blog that the irish times has long been under the name "generation emigration" operable.

Many of the emigrants of recent years are former immigrants who "celtic tiger" had lured in the boom years. It now pulls it back home or pull it into other countries. But the number of irish who are looking for the distance has increased significantly last year. It is now almost 50 percent to 35.200 rose and this is a fatal development for a country with a population of only a good four million. In addition, data of the european statistics hardness is close to eurostat, but rangen only until 2011, that the financial mediates of those who still have a job are becoming precarious. Because the number of part-time divertors has risen significantly. In 2001, only 16.5% were part-time taped, it was already 23.5% in 2011.

The more accurate consideration of naked statistical numbers makes it clear that real the destruction of workplaces is preserved, even if the lower unemployment rate seems to show exactly the opposite. And that throws a slightlight of the alleged recovery of ireland. And, as i said, the unemployment rate is one of the few numbers that seem to show a positive development. But it should also be said that this crisis land could leave the recession behind the second quarter of 2013. Whether this is sustainable, must still show. Finally, ireland was back to the recession for the second time in the crisis years for the second time in the crisis years.

Continue in the debt spiral

But in minister of finance noonan and in the irish government, not only in the ie of emigration prevails a certain reality refusal. To exit the rescue umbrella, noonan said he is very good with it. "We are confident to put a clean exit." with a view to rating agencies, which still as the bonds of the country still as "ram" rate, he says that confidence in the irish economy has risen. "We are not a scrap", he said. "We are fine."

Well, even the boss of the international truth fund (imf) sees this different. Christine lagarde explained that the support of the sovereign debt remains "subsceptible" and unemployment is too high. Any recovery is also burdened by the high debt of private households. As far as the probability of state debts is concerned, lagarde prints past the reality with particularly directed words on the reality. Because the budget deficit should continue to be 7.3% after noonan’s information in 2013 and thus still more than twice as high as the stability goal of 3%. This is supposed to be respected again in 2015.

But then ireland has further removed from the second important maastricht criterion. After that, the debt should not exceed 60% of the annual gross domestic product (gdp). Even now, government debt climbed to 125.7% of gdp, which helped the green island fast portugal and italy. Once the imf had seen a debt ratio of 90% as a critical border (imf warns of high public debt). Today lagarde speaks only from "subsceptible", when greek debate rates are achieved.

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