Currently, all statistics suggest that the global economy is finally moving in the right direction. If the current trends continue, then the tremendous economic imbalances could be degraded
Although the economic imbalances in the global economy are far from dissolving, right now it seems to go in the right direction. As a reminder: the "common sense" among virtually all the ocons is that the us had to be committed (discussed only the period until when the action has been done) and that europe and asia had to increase consumption and investment in order to increase the global economy necessary decrease the us demand without coarse crises. However, as exporters, such as consumers, benefited from the status quo, was the tendency of economic politicians to take appropriate measures, but so far small and the imbalances achieved more and more threatening discharge.
Apparently, the consumer rush, which the us has gone since the 90s, is now finally deducted. According to the latest economic data of the us ministry of economic affairs, the killing of 2.9 percent of gdp growth appears in 2. Quarter (after stormy 5.4 percent in the previous quarter) but not so abrupt to take place that the stability of the financial markets was danger. At any rate, the current numbers have a hope of hoping: while us imports increased by less than one percent, exports to have fun for funf percent, which was allowed to reflect in a reduction in the current account deficit. The increase in private consumption went from 4.8 percent in the previous quarter to 2.6 percent back and even inflation has turned back. Thus, the frightstep "stagflation" (high inflation in stagnant growth) is currently not talking about. However, the essential point was allowed to be the significant cooling of the real estate market. After all, through all gdp components the strongest rint of investments in residential real estate, which broke 9.8 percent.
It is important because thanks to the rising real estate prices for years, us homeowners – without becoming "poor" – could finance their high consumption for years via "home equity extraction" and so the us savings ratio has been able to minus. Low interest rates and new financial products significantly reduced the ongoing costs of loans, but not the emanating sums that climb the worrying. So it was possible to significantly expand the consumption despite the five years long stagnant income. This source is now stimulated. Thus, the youngest figures show that the sales figures in existing houses showed this july by 11.2 percent among those of the same period of the previous year, while prices are stagnating at best. There is no gross problem, because on average, sellers have been owned by their real estate for six years and now still make an increase in value of 60 percent of money, says the association of real estate agents. Anecdotal hints, however, indicate partially dramatic developments. Especially in the areas with the highest price increases, such as las vegas or the coveted locations in florida and california, the prices are currently rapidly falling. Because many sellers are forced to accept low prices to avoid judicial pawn. Nevertheless, the number of poundings rises strongly nationwide and, for example, in july in massachusetts by 56 percent of the previous year’s month. This development will undoubtedly be overcome when the variable interest rate mortgages come to interest earnings, which will be the case with around 30 percent of the circumferential appointment within the next half year. Even if further price breakdowns should be absent, it will hardly be more likely to consume unrealized price increase.
The current slight increase in consumption also seems to have been financed for the first time with increasing private income for a long time, which in the 2. Quarter by 7.6 percent, in the previous quarter even increased by 13 percent (whereby at the beginning of the year, but above all, the extremely upcoming bonuses of the financial manager were paid).
Positive tendencies are also shown by the us budget deficit. Although there is little to notice from flyback losses, but tax revenues have risen sharply due to increasing corporate profits and private income. As a result, after government information, the deficit in the 30. September ending financial year "only" still $ 296 billion, after $ 423 billion in the previous year. At the same time, however, a change in the investment behavior of the companies also seems to be recorded. So far, the focus on avian economically irrelevant investments in retail real estate and real estate sector, the investments seem to increase in the areas of well producing that could be exported. Such reorientation of the us industry is indeed necessarily necessary to reduce the huge trade deficit. For well half of the growth in economic output and employment of the past five years took place in the real estate area, a division, in which hardly gross export sequence is possible.
During the new york "conference board" on 29. August for the united states the strongest burglary of consumer confidence since the hurricane katrina, announced, announced the company for consumer research (gfk) for germany since 2001 on the same day. Similarly, the relevance is within wide parts of europe, for example in the previously valid italy and france. The european central bank reported to its interest income of double-digit growth rates for loans to companies and private households and was generally satisfied with consumption and growth. Because obviously, the europeans have finally saved that, as shown in austria, where spending on vacation travel in the 2. Quarter by a good 30 percent high levels than in the same period of the previous year.
During an ac nielsen comparative study, the years of highest depressive japanese consumers still certified worldwide highest consumption pessimism, but has also begun to consume the second grave economy in the world. After all, unemployment has been significantly reduced significantly and real estate prices will finally show up again after decades of desire. So japanese economic growth in the 2. Quarter in 2006 with an increase of 0.2% towards the previous quarter superflatable, but this was mainly due to a massive racy of government spending, which was covered in the incurred. Private consumption, however, grew by 0.5% and the equipment investments even stronger.
Gentle landing of the us economy was demanding economic boom in the rest of the world
During india, according to nielsen, according to the world’s most optimistic consumers and boomers of russia and brazil boomers, recently even the economical chinese seem to gain a bit of luxury and attract their most recently more than 40 percent savings rate. In the best of all possible worlds, these trends were continuing and a "gentle landing" of the us economy will take place at the same time with an investment and consumption boom in many parts of the rest of the world. The poorest countries were no longer exported their savings to the us, but invest in innland. The whole world could thus increase its standard of living, while the us burger could buy their suvs, porsches and flat screens only then if they deserved the necessary money.
Of course, the trust of economy and consumers who have just awakened only was allowed to be depleted. While the sales tax level was steaming in germany, there were probably two risks at international level: on the one hand, an attack of the usa to iran could produce an international crisis that catapults the olm prize, on the other hand, and on the other hand, on the other hand, autonomous "crisis of the financial markets can hardly be excluded.
Financial crises are characterized by a more or less succinct loss of confidence, which leads to significant price reductions on one or more financial markets. Depending on the emergency of the market participants, a very insignificant event can bring the barrel to overflow, or also give an indeed engraving event – such as an iran war – the rash. The high the nervousstate on the market, the stronger so the "feeling", the marketes are survival, the slight more silent can be the exclusive. Then the question arises as to whether market participants consider the lower prices as a purchase opportunity – which makes the crisis on "healthy correction" – or if they prefer not to grab a "falling knife". The goods of the extracted "crash", whereby huge amounts of paper enhanced are destroyed and immediate jerking of private consumption and investment are the real economic consequence.
In view of the currently generally high corporate gains, the courses at the international control parks are not necessarily high after the course valuation models. It even seems to be "priced" as a commodity already "priced", so that from this site no too rough danger was allowed to threaten. In addition, since the youngest turbulence, international money managers have expanded their liquidity in the youngest turbulence and for course-ups, instead of being used in panic, should think more about buying. Historical experienced also show that the boroses are only broken up with truly serious economic offspring. On the other hand, the rint of the random, then, according to bloomberg analyst, chet currier were even above-average boron gains the result. According to raghuram g. Rajan, chief volkswirt of the international truth fund, had the most extremely low interest rates for years, the financial managers to take over risks), which was partially corrected with the price bins in the last may. The rising interest rates should therefore have now led to more realistic risk / revenue relations, which should have reduced the vulnerability of the financial markets.
In the case of severe economic stimulus, the us federal reserve now also has a few space for stimulating interest rate cuts, which, of course, means that the rest of the world over a devaluation of the dollar to impose a coarse load. Because already in these "best of all possible worlds" foreign dollar investors had to be clearly clear, albeit rather exceptional exchange rate losses. However, these could be all the more gravely, the more expansive us monetary policy is being designed as a result. This increases the danger that a global loss of confidence in the dollar leads to a violent deduction movement of private investors, which is currently the sharpest damoclesworth, which floats over the global economy. Because the international consumption and investment mood could withstand a dollar crash, seems to be unlikely. After all, the rest of the world has invested rough parts of their savings in long-term dollar investments and many private investors had to adjust to lower pension benefits, for example,.